02 January 2007

What are you optimistic about?

It's a new year and up at the Edge John Brockman is asking the now-traditional annual "big question", a wide-open query put to many smart people, mostly scientists from all disciplines. Last year John asked "What is your dangerous idea?". This year, he has somehow reversed the lens: "What are you optimistic about? Why?". 160 people contributed their answer. Here a few by some of my favorite thinkers (and, incidentally, TED and TEDGLOBAL speakers or friends):

• Philosopher Dan Dennett: The evaporation of the powerful mystique of religion.
• Psychologist Daniel Goleman: Transparency.
• The New Scientist's Alun Anderson: The sunlight-powered future.
• Psychologist Steven Pinker: The decline of violence.
• Howard "Smart Mobs" Rheingold: The tools for cultural production and distribution are in the hands of 14 year olds.
• Biotechonomy's Juan Enriquez: Leading millions out of poverty in a single generation.
• Science historian George Dyson: The return of commercial sail.
• Former Microsoft VP Linda Stone: People are using tech effectively to mediate toward a healthier global community.
• Biologist Brian Goodwin: Our ability as a species to respond to the challenge presented by peak oil.
• "Collapse"'s Jared Diamond: Good choices sometimes prevail.
• Google's Chris Dibona: Widely available, constantly renewing, high-res images of the Earth will end conflict and ecological devastation as we know it.
• Human genome decoder Craig Venter: Evidence-based decision-making will help transform society.
• Social networks researcher Clay Shirky: Evidence.
• Forecaster Paul Saffo: Humankind is particularly good at muddling.
• Anthropologist Helen Fisher: "Free love".
• Writer Cory Doctorow: Copying is what bits are for.

TED curator Chris Anderson was also asked. His answer: Systemic flaws in the reported world view:

Paradoxically, one of the biggest reasons for being optimistic is that there are systemic flaws in the reported world view. Certain types of news -- for example dramatic disasters and terrorist actions -- are massively over-reported, others -- such as scientific progress and meaningful statistical surveys of the state of the world -- massively under-reported. Although this leads to major problems such as distortion of rational public policy and a perpetual gnawing fear of apocalypse, it is also reason to be optimistic. Once you realize you're being inadvertently brainwashed to believe things are worse than they are, you can... with a little courage... step out into the sunshine. ... So for example, the publication last year of a carefully researched Human Security Report received little attention. Despite the fact that it had concluded that the numbers of armed conflicts in the world had fallen 40% in little over a decade. And that the number of fatalities per conflict had also fallen. Think about that. The entire news agenda for a decade, received as endless tales of wars, massacres and bombings, actually missed the key point. Things are getting better. If you believe Robert Wright and his NonZero hypothesis, this is part of a very long-term and admittedly volatile trend in which cooperation eventually trumps conflict. (Full text)

What are you optimistic about? Click on "comments" below and share.

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