26 October 2007

Peak oil: Chevron CTO's best guess

News.com's blog reports on how much oil we have left, in the estimate of Chevron CTO Don Paul: About 1 trillion gallons that we can extract, and another trillion that, for now, we can't. In a hallway conversation with a News.com reporter, Chevron's Paul estimated that we will have consumed half of all the oil that ever existed -- 1.5 trillion gallons, out of 3 trillion -- by 2012. From the story:

Thus, peak oil--the theory that we're about to get into declining numbers on conventional oil--is probably real. However, Paul said, "I don't think it has to be the catastrophe that other people have predicted, because there are other ways to make fuel."

Watch TED.com in the coming weeks for more on alternative fuels, including Juan Enriquez's recent talk at TED's fall Salon, on new ways to grow energy -- related to his exciting work with Craig Venter at Synthetic Genomics.

Or take the point of view of TEDTalks favorite James Howard Kunstler. Near the end of Kunstler's talk on modern suburbia, he describes a post-peak-oil future that actually doesn't sound that bad: We'll work and eat locally. We'll rely on our neighbors. We'll ... walk.

Technorati tags: Craig Venter, James Howard Kunstler, Juan Enriquez, peak oil

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Stuart Rothschild IV – April 4 2008

Funny...I noticed a common theme on Ted.com.

There is a tendency or preference towards a particular perspective, ideology or result. TED's output is influenced by inner biases, to the extent that all posted views are not subjectively considered neutral or objective.

This website is 100% bias towards socialism and liberalism. Can't the creators of ted.com offer a balanced website and have some intelligence from conservative thinkers in the world.

I thought this was an effort to educate but rather ted.com is an attempt to recruit newcomers to their religion of liberalism. I suspect this site will vanish just as most other liberal swindles have in the past.

SRIV
rupert kaufman – April 1 2008

The worlds population was 1 billion at the time oil was discovered and it has allowed the population to grow to 6 billion mainly by efficient transportation and the green revolution. Now that we have wasted and squandered a fantastic source of cheap energy, it is now probable that the world population will not reach 9 billion but rather will reduce to 3 billion rather quickly due to expensive transportation and expensive food and competition for resources.
TEDBlog Reader – October 29 2007

In the words of Richard Dawkins: 'It's important to keep an open mind, but not so open that your brain falls out'. Let's try to think critically about alternative fuel sources, ok? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7065061.stm
Greg Huntoon – October 26 2007

I love it when people discuss this topic, and then at the end say something stupid like: "I don't think it has to be the catastrophe that other people have predicted, because there are other ways to make fuel." While, of course it's true that there are infinite other ways to produce fuel, and even a handful of viable solutions that are being researched, tested and implemented now. The problem, which everyone overlooks, is that EVERYTHING requires large quantities of oil to produce. Everything. All of our plastics, all transportation, all industrial processes....so if we run out of oil before we are well into the adoption of alternative fuel sources, we're going to be in a terrific amount of trouble. The world economy is 100% dependent on oil at this moment.

Even with all the research on new technologies, until solar panels, hydro- and wind-powered turbines, alternative fuel automobiles are in wide use, and a viable substitute for petroleum in petroleum based products has been found the loss of oil will bring the world to a screeching and catastrophic halt.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, as I actually believe we can accomplish this. I'm just saying that we need to really pick up the pace. It would be catastrophic to run out of oil, because no one is taking this serious enough.