03 May 2009

The week in comments

This was an especially lively week on the TED commenting front, as our community tackled debates on swine flu, race and politics, and globalization. These amazing discussions can get a little heated -- so we appreciate that there always seems to be a voice of reason that emerges from the group to soothe frazzled nerves and streamline the discussion with a nod to both sides.

This one's for the peace-makers:

On Alex Tabarrok's interview with the TEDBlog:
TED talks are supposed to create debate, not end them.. Seems this one was a success then? -- Oli

On Nathan Wolfe's interview with the TEDBlog:
Bird flu is essentially a veterinary problem. Swine Flu is essentially a human health problem, and so is alarmism and fear. But not information and prevention, those are on our side and also on our side is the augmentation of average temperatures in the coming months and...wash your hands! -- Manel via facebook

On Laurie Garrett's TEDTalk: What can we learn from the 1918 flu pandemic?:
I thought this was particularly insightful given the evolution of the H1n1 virus in Mexico this past week. I heard people are reusing masks even those found in the trash cans. They wash and re-sell them, this is one case where ignorance kills and spreads a flu -- Juan via facebook

On Nate Silver's interview with the TEDBlog:
But yes, he is not pinheaded nor racist. He _is_ a nerdy dude who is big on analyzing and finding relationships within information... public speaking is not his forte. -- Toby via facebook

And, sometimes, the community glue is the speaker themselves:

On Brian Cox's TEDTalk: What went wrong (and what's next) at the Large Hadron Collider:
If the Higgs bosun particle (God particle), when found, is as congenial as Brian Cox, I think we can all agree to presuppose why the elementary particles cohere. -- Adrian

Thanks for keeping the debate alive.

Posted by Shanna Carpenter | Permalink

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27 April 2009

The future of cooperation -- and economic growth: Exclusive interview with Alex Tabarrok

Alex Tabarrok is co-author of hit economics blog Marginal Revolution. At TED2009, he talked about how a lesson from 1929 teaches us that ideas trump economic crises. The TED Blog interviewed Tabarrok over the phone to find out what else makes him optimistic about the future of economic development:

What do you say to the argument that the Third World will not develop because we don't have the natural resources to sustain the development?

I utterly reject the view that the Third World is doomed to poverty and starvation. Not only is this wrong, I think this attitude verges on the immoral, like thinking that slavery is an unalterable facet of the human condition so why bother doing anything about it? Moreover, thinking of this kind -- I call it the Lebensraum point of view -- leads to war and destruction. The Lebensraum point of view, however, is rejected by evidence from the second half of the twentieth century. Peace and free trade are the routes to wealth -- not a grab for "limited" resources.

The term natural resources confuses people. "Natural resources" are not like a finite number of gifts under the Christmas tree. Nature is given but resources are created. Oil was around for millions of years before people realized it could power civilization. Who would have thought that an utterly common element like silicon would drive 21st century growth? Or that atoms could light homes? At any point in time, resources are limited but what counts as a resource changes over time. Perhaps in the future people will worry that we are running out of asteroids to mine! Of course, the ultimate "natural resource" is the power of the human mind, and more minds are going to come online in the 21st century than ever before.

None of this is to say that the environment and global climate change are not a huge concern. We need to adapt, use more sustainable sources of energy, and think for the long term to a greater extent than our species has done in the past. I worry that we will not do these things. But if we do accept and meet these challenges I have little doubt that world as a whole will be a better and a richer place.

In your talk, you called China "the world's greatest anti-poverty program of the last few decades." Could you elaborate on that?

With the death of Mao and the rise of Deng Xiao Ping, China began to grow at tremendous rates -- 10 percent per year. Without any foreign aid to speak of, this "program" raised hundreds of millions of people out of the very worst kind of poverty. China in 1979 had among the highest poverty rates in the world. Its economic growth has brought several hundred million people from making less than a dollar a day out of that starvation-level poverty. Remember that, during the Great Leap Forward 30 to 40 million people starved in China.

TED is going to host a conference in India in November, so, in the same vein, could you talk about where India might be going?

India is a bit behind China, but in the 1990s they also freed up their economy, and they have unleashed an incredible amount of entrepreneurialism involving world trade. The India-China story is exciting, because India has a lot of advantages going for it -- English speaking being one. China's trying to catch up on that score. Whether India can overcome some of its bureaucracy will be interesting to see. Also, the role of democracy is fascinating.

A lot of people say that India has been held back by its democracy. But let’s remember that despite being a poor country India’s democracy meant that its government never let millions of people starve. No politician wants to starve potential voters. In the long run, I think India is going to benefit from its democracy and not be harmed by it. Democracy is, in a sense, like markets. It provides information and feedback, it leads to a more open system and it constrains government from the worst kinds of abuses. I think that the more China proceeds along the wealth path, the more difficult they will find it not to have a democracy.

Why is there so much fear about the rise of nations like China?

Under Communism, China and the Soviet Union -- with their nuclear weapons and their anti-trade, anti-Western ideology -- certainly were threats. But with their integration into the world economy as trade has increased, that threat has declined.

Cordell Hull, U.S. Secretary of State under Franklin Delano Roosevelt, is said to have remarked, "When goods don't cross borders, armies will." Free trade unites the world and reduces the threats from other nations. It doesn't eliminate it, but we have much less to fear from a rich, prosperous China than we do from a poor, starving China.

Clay Shirky talks about a thing that he calls a "cognitive surplus" -- the idea that as we work less, we can spend our mental energy on other things. And in the past 50 years, we've spent lots of that surplus watching TV. What do you think about that?

Julian Simon said that our ultimate resource is the power of the human mind. And I think that's true. As fewer people work as coal miners or farmers, more time is freed for thinking. In Africa, China and India today, I guarantee there are millions of people working on the farms who could be scientists and engineers -- if the world were richer.

As we get richer, we do spend more time in leisure. But I think television's pretty good. (Laughs) I like television; I like The Sopranos, I like The Wire, I loved the first season of Veronica Mars. Television is much more complex, brain-challenging and involved than it used to be. It's almost impossible to watch a television show from 15 years ago; it's just too boring. I think modern television shows, with their intricate plots, are stimulating our minds. This is one reason IQs have been going up.

READ MORE: Alex Tabarrok talks television, drug decriminalization, bounty hunters ...

Posted by Matthew Trost | Permalink

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27 April 2009

How ideas trump economic crises -- a surprising lesson from 1929: Alex Tabarrok on TED.com

The "dismal science" truly shines in this optimistic talk, as economist Alex Tabarrok argues free trade and globalization are shaping our once-divided world into a community of idea-sharing more healthy, happy and prosperous than anyone's predictions. (Recorded at TED2009, February 2009, in Long Beach, California. Duration: 14:33.)

Watch Alex Tabarrok's talk on TED.com, where you can download this TEDTalk, rate it, comment on it and find other talks and performances from our archive of 400+ TEDTalks.

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Posted by Emily McManus | Permalink

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07 February 2009

TED2009 minutes from Ethan Zuckerman: Optimistic predictions

Ethan Zuckerman is liveblogging TED2009, and has posted his notes from the morning session, "Predict." Despite current troubles, speakers were decidedly optimistic for the future. Here's an excerpt from Ethan's article on Alex Tabarrok:

"Tabarrok sees growth coming from new ideas. He believes that future growth comes from ideas that have high R&D costs, but low production costs. He quotes Jefferson, with the wonderful maxim about knowledge, that he who lights his candle at mine receives light without darkening me. As he phrases it, 'One apple feeds one man, one idea can feed the world.' "

Of course, there's much more to see on Ethan's blog. He has notes on statistician Nate Silver's discussion of the presidential elections and race, as well as political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita with predictions on Iran. There's also an update from Nicholas Negroponte on his One Laptop per Child program and a discussion about Dan Ariely and asking questions.

A positive outlook on the future may be what we all need now.

Posted by TED Staff | Permalink

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06 February 2009

KPCC's Patt Morrison broadcasts from TED

Legendary interviewer Patt Morrison ran a two-hour broadcast from TED today, pulling in a raft of TED speakers and TEDsters, including two of the 2009 TED Prize winners. In four segments, she asked some amazing questions and started up some cross-pollinating discussions: Shai Agassi and Ray Anderson discussing the green revolution; Alex Tabarrok and Robin Williams on economics (Alex's specialty) and jokes (Robin's); Nicholas Negroponte and Yves Behar (shown above during their interview) on design with a mission and the next $100 laptop; and the TED Prize, with Jill Tarter of the SETI Institute and Sylvia Earle, oceanographer.

The broadcast is available as a podcast right here -- look for the February 6 show.

Posted by Emily McManus | Permalink

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