The past few weeks have seen some extraordinary TED-relevant news items, both happy and sad. Below are some highlights.

This year’s TEDGlobal included a new simulcast event, TEDxVilniusLive, which featured a livestream of the conference, a TEDxYouShare audience session, and a Maker Fair that showed off plenty of innovative local work. Lithuania’s youngest quadcopter constructor, Matas Jankauskas, had one of his quads take some beautiful footage of the event.

Last week, TED Fellow Jae Rhim Lee was granted a special jury award for her mushroom burial suit in Designboom’s “Design for Death” competition. (The other winners are deeply worth checking out too.) Watch her beautiful, bizarre and compelling TED Talk.

TED speaker Brené Brown spoke recently with Business Insider Australia about how to face criticism head-on, even when others are recommending that it’s better not to read your online comments. Watch her 2010 breakout talk at TEDxHouston.

The wide range of TED Talks about what and how we eat prompted FoodTank to create a list of 24 talks “that will save the food system.” After you’ve taken a look, you can also head to our playlists “The joy of eating,” “Plantastic” and “What’s wrong with what we eat?”

In a New York Magazine interview with Will and Jaden Smith, Jaden reports that his father is something of a TED addict – and always has a few “ideas worth spreading” as a parent.

Explorer and TED speaker Ben Saunders is preparing to lead a two-person expedition traveling on foot the 1,800-mile return journey to the South Pole from the Coast of Antarctica – completing the trek attempted by Captain Robert Scott from 1910-1913, and aptly titled the Scott Expedition. Watch “Ben Saunders skis to the North Pole,” the story of his earlier adventures on the other side of the globe.

In Peter Singer’s recent TED Talk, “The why and how of effective altruism,” he suggests that the best way to give more may simply be to make more – by taking a high-earning job in finance. The Washington Post published a piece about a young man who’s doing just that.

The Amsterdam-based company Fairphone is on its way to creating the fair trade smartphone that Bandi Mbubi called for in his powerful talk, “Demand a fair trade cell phone.” The phone isn’t 100 percent fair trade yet, but it’s working toward the goal. Read the report from TEDxAmsterdam.

Belinda Luscombe of Time sat down with Sir Ken Robinson to discuss his TED fame (watch the most viewed TED Talk of all time), his new book, Finding Your Element, and, of course, what we need in education today.

In sadder news, the recent attack on a Red Cross compound in Afghanistan made us think of Alberto Cairo’s moving TED Talk, “There are no scraps of men,” about the orthopedic clinic in Afghanistan where he provided mental and physical healing through the most dangerous and difficult of times.

Faith Jegede: What I’ve learned from my autistic brothers
TED@London
Jegede explains how her two autistic brothers are “bypassed and misunderstood” by most people, who don’t understand (and don’t make an effort to understand) who her brothers are and the ways in which they’re unique. To Jegede, they’re incredible: “I cast my mind back to the things that they’ve taught me about individuality and communication and love, and I realize that these are things that I wouldn’t want to change with normality. Normality overlooks the beauty that differences give us.”

Temple Grandin: The world needs all kinds of minds
TED2010
Grandin, who is autistic, explains that she is particularly attentive to detail and that she thinks in pictures rather than words–an ability that has given her a tremendous amount of insight in her work with animals. Grandin argues that people on the autism spectrum offer invaluable skills and perspectives.

Andrew Solomon: Love, no matter what
TEDMED 2013
In his talk about children who are different from their parents in a variety of ways, Solomon touches on autism, quoting activist Jim Sinclair: “When parents say, ‘I wish my child did not have autism,’ what they’re really saying is, ‘I wish the child I have did not exist and I had a different, non-autistic child instead.’” Solomon explains, “People engage with the life they have and they don’t want to be cured or changed or eliminated. They want to be whoever it is that they’ve come to be”—-and be accepted and loved for being that complex, flawed person.

Aditi Shankardass: A second opinion on developmental disorders
TEDIndia 2009
According to Shankardass, one in six children has a developmental disorder–but they’re mostly diagnosed on the basis of their symptoms rather than their brain activity. Using new technology that measures the brain’s electrical activity, doctors like Shankardass are able to render more accurate analyses of what’s going on inside their patients’ heads. For instance, she describes a child who was misdiagnosed as autistic, but who was in reality suffering from brain seizures. Only when doctors really understand what’s happening with their patients can they help them achieve their own greatest potential.

Ami Klin: A new way to diagnose autism
TEDxPeachtree
Klin, an autism researcher, describes the huge range of autism’s manifestations, what autism looks like, and a new early detection mechanism. Klin argues that autism “creates itself” during a child’s early years, as he drifts further away from the world of social interaction, so that early detection might also mean prevention.

In the talk, he hints at some of his most recent analysis: On May 17, 2013, he says, “we identified that the US stock market was on an unsustainable path, and we released on our website … that on the 21st of May, that there will be a change of course. And the next day, the market started to change course.”

We talked to him about this, and he was willing to go into more detail, starting with the graph below. On the left axis (in black) you can see the level of the S&P500’s exchange-traded fund, SPY, over the past three years. On the right (in red), you can see the level of the Crash Risk Index (CRI), his team’s forecast of the likelihood of a crash.

The past three years of S&P500’s growth compared to its Crash Risk Index.

There was, as he said, “a pretty strong signal on May 21st. Since then, however, the CRI dropped to zero.” He went on, “The US market saw its peak on 22nd May 2013, and since then, it has gone overall down and sideways, confirming clearly the change of course, breaking the trend that had developed since November 2012, which we expected.”

That new information begged a few more questions:

Are there any other forecasts for the coming year that you’d be willing to share?

We have recently diagnosed bubbles in the financial and insurance sectors, as well as in the construction and realty sectors, in the US. This is interesting, given that these very sectors were at the core of the crisis starting in 2007.

Is there a way to prevent market bubbles from forming in the first place?

The prediction of 21st May 2013 concerning the US market and subsequent developments illustrate that markets are largely driven by political events. For instance, the US market developed in lockstep with the Nikkei after the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced the massive quantitative easing (QE) in Japan, in the beginning of April 2013.

[Note: QE is the process by which central banks buy assets from private banks and other firms to inject currency into the market by, theoretically, making it easier for those institutions to continue spending and lending. QE has been tried, repeatedly over the past few years and never without controversy, in the US, UK, Japan and EU.]

Indeed, equities are expensive, and prices have been propped up by central banks’ easing policies. But the big correction, when it comes, will be triggered by a major political or social event induced when bubbles, driven by the QE everywhere, reach maturity and global instability rises.

All this is to stress that market bubbles are formed in response to accommodating policies of central banks and governments. Now, it may actually be counterproductive to prevent bubbles from forming. There are many indications that central banks, and the Fed in particular, react dynamically to stock market developments in an effort to push them up. This has become the unwritten goal of the Fed — as growth and a booming stock market creates wealth and instills confidence for investors and consumers. But, having said that, I do believe that bubbles in the financial sphere, in the long run, drive the misallocation of resources and generate great instabilities.

What specific mechanisms can prevent boom-and-bust cycles and forge a sustainable path for growth?

There are several mechanisms to prevent booms-and-busts, but they come at the cost of stronger regulation and a stricter control of the banking and insurance industry, such as reenacting of the Glass-Steagall Act. In other words, in the present architecture, lower volatility and smaller booms-and-busts come at the cost of lower growth. More specifically, the simplest way to prevent bubbles is through monetary policy (by increasing the interest rates, as well as other instruments to reduce access to credit).

The social bubbles argument [Note: the argument that market bubbles can spur a concentrated spurt of innovation in the relevant sector] is interesting in this context: Over-optimism can be a powerful driving force for innovation, as it was in the cases of the Apollo and the Human Genome projects. [1-4] But, in those two examples, there was a clear vision driving public investment. That is very different from pumping money into the private financial institutions and hoping for the best, as central banks have been doing from 2008 on. The current QE-fueled bubble will probably not have any useful social consequences …

What scares you most about today’s global economy?

My worry is that the present QE policies may jeopardize long-term growth by not addressing the underlying structural problems and the exploding debt of nations.

What scares me most is the illusion of the perpetual money machine [5] that continues unabated, along with growing structural imbalances that are absolutely not being addressed at their roots (e.g., German vs. Greek productivity and many others; the exorbitant privilege of banks in the economy when they do not serve their real, useful role; the focus on short-term economic growth at the level of nations without addressing the paralyzing structures that have to be modified … and so on).

And central banks are flying blind, they have no clue and are doing an enormous real-life experiment with enormous consequences for the welfare of real people.

And what is frustrating is that the knowledge is there; it’s just that central banks are mostly guided by DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models that do not account for the possibility of out-of-equilibrium bubbles and crises. They are using sextants, while they should be using GPS.

Does anything about today’s global economy make you optimistic?

Young entrepreneurs, the creativity of people, and the conviction that, when things get much worse, great creativity and cooperation will be unleashed.

I do not believe we will see a smooth and soft ride, but rather rough and turbulent times ahead of us that will hurt different nations and groups of people differently. Mankind will have to adapt to the new normal, with accelerating changes. It won’t be without pain, but there will be great opportunities for those who are prepared with multiple skills.

I would also mention the immense startup ecosystem that has built up over the past two decades, both as a result of open-source software (OSS) and the first big internet bubble. The way I see it:

• Cheap money (due to both QE and past internet successes) + cheap capital (in the form of tools, due to the incremental nature of OSS) + cheap labor (due to high youth and structural unemployment) => optimism.

• OSS and collective learning, cooperation and problem-solving provide truly unique and novel opportunities.

Footnotes:

[1] D. Sornette, Nurturing Breakthroughs; Lessons from Complexity Theory, Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 3, 165-181 (2008), DOI: 10.1007/s11403-008-0040-8 (http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1839)

[2] Monika Gisler and Didier Sornette, Exuberant Innovations: The Apollo Program, Society 46, 55-68 (2009), DOI: 10.1007/s12115-008-9163-8 (http://arxiv.org/abs/0806.0273 and http://ssrn.com/abstract=1139807)

[3] Monika Gisler, Didier Sornette and Ryan Woodard, Innovation as a Social Bubble: The Example of the Human Genome Project, Research Policy 40, 1412-1425 (2011) (http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.2882 and http://ssrn.com/abstract=1573682)

[4] Monika Gisler and Didier Sornette, Bubbles Everywhere in Human Affairs, chapter in book entitled “Modern RISC-Societies. Towards a New Framework for Societal Evolution”, L. Kajfez Bogataj, K.H. Mueller, I. Svetlik, N. Tos (eds.), Wien, edition echoraum: 137-153 (2010) (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1590816)

[5] D. Sornette and P. Cauwels, The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine, Notenstein Academy White Paper Series (Dec. 2012)(http://arxiv.org/abs/1212.2833 and http://ssrn.com/abstract=2191509)

Steven Addis shares his father-daughter tradition at TED2012. Photo: James Duncan Davidson

He is a part of you. Whether you are close or not, whether he was a constant part of your life or not, he impacted who you are today. You love him – except maybe when you can’t stand him. For better or worse, he is your dad. Celebrate this Father’s Day with these nine TED Talks about the importance of dads. From what Steve Addis did to maintain his relationship with his daughter to what Adam Garone grew to help dads everywhere, these talks inspire, comfort and remind us just how important a father’s love can be.

Adam Garone: Healthier men, one moustache at a time Adam Garone: Healthier Men, One Moustache At a Time In his TEDxToronto talk, Adam Garone speaks about how a dare in a bar lead to $126 million for prostate cancer research.

Tony Porter: A call to menTony Porter: A call to men In Tony Porter’s emotional and personal talk from TEDWomen, he entreats men to teach their sons how to escape the “man box” to end the violence against and victimization of women.

Angela Patton: A father-daughter dance ... in prisonAngela Patton: A father–daughter dance … in prison Camp Diva works to unite young girls with their fathers, but, as Angela Patton’s funny and engaging TEDxWomen talk shows, when fathers are under extenuating circumstances everyone must help that relationship prosper.

Jackson Katz: Violence against women—it's a men's issue Jackson Katz: Violence against women, it’s a men’s issue In his bold TEDxFiDiWomen talk, Jackson Katz explains why violence is tied to the definition of manhood and why it is up to everyone, men and women, to call out intolerable behavior and redefine what it means to be a man.

Colin Stokes: How movies teach manhood Colin Stokes: How movies teach manhood Fatherhood exposed Colin Stokes to the diverging moralities of movies marketed to girls and boys. Movies for his daughter stressed cooperation; movies for his son had undertones of violence. In his TEDxBeaconStreet talk, Stokes calls for movies with positive messages of teamwork for boys.

Adora Svitak: What adults can learn from kids Adora Svitak: What adults can learn from kids Child prodigy, Adora Svitak is tired of being called “childish.” In her TED2010 talk, she explains why being childish is just the thing adults need to be.

Bruce Feiler: The council of dads Bruce Feiler: The council of dads When Bruce Feiler was diagnosed with cancer, he worried about who would father his girls if he should die. In this inspiring TEDMED talk, Feiler talks about his “Council of Dads” and how friends helped him capture the essence of fatherhood.

Lemn Sissay: A child of the state Lemn Sissay: A Child of the State In his TEDxHouseofParliament talk, Lemn Sissay struggles to unite literature idealization of orphaned children with his own life as a foster child.

Steven Addis: A father-daughter bond, one photo at a time Steve Addis: A father–daughter bond, one photo at a time Photographer Steve Addis’ most treasured photos are ones strangers took. In his TED2012 talk, Addis explains how one father–daughter tradition helped bond him and his daughter forever.

Some of the TED Prize winners of the past. Could you be the next?

Chances are, you’ve heard Ghandi’s famous words: “Be the change you wish to see in the world.” Now, you have an opportunity to bring this famous adage to life by dreaming up a high-impact collaborative action for the global community. The TED Prize is an annual $1 million grant given to a bold leader with an idea for a large-scale project, organization or campaign that has the potential to inspire the world. With the TED Prize nominations deadline on the horizon — all nominations must be received June 16 at midnight — there’s still time for you to nominate yourself and share your ambitious wish for the world.

Is a little nagging voice in your head discouraging you from stepping into the ring? Take TED speaker Adora Svitak’s wisdom to heart: “In order to make anything a reality you have to dream about it first. In many ways our audacity to imagine helps push the boundaries of possibility.” While humility is a valued trait for any TED Prize winning hopeful, it is key for nominees to be daring enough to envision a world-changing idea and bold enough to execute it.

If you’ve ever had a notion that one of your grand dreams could transform the world, here are 5 reasons why you should nominate yourself for the TED Prize.

1. Because if not you, then who? Ask yourself: What if the world is waiting for a bright idea that only you can offer? You’re the best storyteller about your own experiences and the imaginings of your mind. While being recommended by someone else is an honor and carries the same weight as self-nomination, nominating yourself gives you an opportunity to share your unique, authentic and nuanced perspective.
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2. To build awareness for the issue you’re most passionate about. Do you ever wish that the issue you care about filled more headlines? If you apply for the Prize and win, the story of change you want the world to hear will be received in a multiplicity of ways. Plus, the next TED Prize winner will reveal their wish with their very own talk from the TED2014 stage. Winning the TED Prize will allow you to be even more of a cultural force, capable of moving hearts and minds across the globe to help make your wish come true.
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3. Because you’d get to inspire a collaborative action. How amazing would it be if your wish ended up inspiring folks in the TEDx community and beyond to commit their time and support toward making your brainchild a reality? If your bid for the TED Prize is successful, you’ll be able to leverage the community’s resources and potentially engage and mobilize thousands of TEDx organizers and catalysts.
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4. Because the prize will enable you to dream bigger. The prospect of getting $1 million to bring your idea into fruition provides you with a chance to consider how to take your existing vision to greater heights. Look at your current goals and inspirations and think about what you’d create with the help of significant seed funding plus strategic support. You will be able to expand your view about what’s possible.
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5. To diversify the landscape: Think about it — are voices like yours being adequately recognized for what you’re doing in your community or globally? If you ever feel like an unsung hero whose ideas and leadership have yet to receive the right platform to make the biggest impact, share your powerful idea for the world. What’s more, if you win, your audacity and ambition will serve as an inspiring model to future nominees.

Convinced? It’s time to own your expertise and consider the impact your unique ideas could have worldwide. Nominate yourself by June 16^th at midnight EST.

Michael Sandel, Chris Anderson and Michael Porter at 2013 in Edinburgh, Scotland. June 12-15, 2013. Photo: James Duncan Davidson

It’s the last day of TEDGlobal 2013, which means goodbyes and premature reminiscing. Onward: In session 11, “Tech Impact,” we heard about the dangers and delights of our accelerated technological age. We’re doomed! No we’re not! Yes we are! And in session 12, “All Together Now,” we held mental hands and were reminded that, in spite of it all, we’re in this together. Below are some highlights from this brief but potent morning:

Michael v Michael: Michael Porter and Michael Sandel, two Michaels from Harvard, dressed nearly identically, debated to what extent market practices should pervade society. Porter reiterated that business has a lot to offer causes of social good, and Sandel agreed that markets have their place — but that they should stay there. “Good thing we both have tenure,” Porter joked as the two took good-natured pokes at each other. Read more about Porter’s talk or Sandel’s talk »

Charmian Gooch read word-for-word a passage from her script, holding the paper in front of her as she detailed exactly how Nigerian oil minister Dan Etete transferred money to himself from Shell and Eni. She had to read the passage verbatim, says Gooch, because Global Witness’ lawyers had combed through it, and she had to get it exactly right. Read more about Gooch’s talk on corruption »

An Xiao Mina said “cǎonímǎ” on stage, to the giggles of a few Chinese audience members. That’s because the phrase — which means “grass mud horse” — closely resembles “cào nǐ mā,” literally, “fuck your mother.” The grass mud horse is an online meme in China that is used as a symbol to protest against Chinese Internet censorship. Read more about Mina’s funny and informative talk on activist memes »

Photo: James Duncan Davidson

David Steindl-Rast is a monk, and a composed, serene figure to wrap up the last session of TEDGlobal 2013. His theme, gratefulness, is also appropriate for the end of a long and intense week. After all, he points out, we all share the same essential goal: to be happy. And gratitude provides the key. “We all know people who have lots of misfortunes that we ourselves would not want to have, and they are deeply happy, they radiate happiness,” he says. Why are they like this? “Because they are grateful. It is not happiness that makes us grateful, but gratefulness that makes us happy.”

So how exactly do we live gratefully? ”By becoming aware that every moment is a ‘given moment,’ as we say,” Steindl-Rast explains. “It’s a gift. You haven’t earned it or brought it about. And you have no way of assuring there will be another moment given to you.” As such, we should consider each moment as precious and a great opportunity. “If you didn’t have this present moment you wouldn’t have any opportunity to do or experience anything.”

So what about that saying, “opportunity knocks only once.” Not true, says the good brother. “Think again. Every moment is a new gift.” Miss the opportunity of one moment and another one will be right along. “The master key to our happiness is in our own hands. Moment by moment we can be grateful for this gift.” It’s a beautifully simple but powerful thought.

Photo: James Duncan Davidson

So does this mean we should be grateful for everything, even bad stuff? Certainly not. “We cannot be grateful for violence, for war, for oppression, for exploitation,” says Steindl-Rast. “On a personal level we cannot be grateful for the loss of a friend, for unfaithfulness, for bereavement.” But he has a way to think about such bleak moments, too. “Even when we are confronted by something terribly difficult, we can rise to the occasion and respond to the opportunity given to us.” Sometimes the lesson of a painful experience is a chance to learn. We certainly tend to admire those who take something positive from a negative experience. And for those who don’t quite manage it this time, another opportunity will be along in a minute. “Phew,” says someone in the audience.

Steindl-Rast even has practical advice for living gratefully, moment by moment. It’s based on the advice children are given when learning to cross the road:

STOP: “We rush through life; we don’t stop, and we miss opportunities because we don’t stop,” he says. He tells us the story of returning home after spending time in a remote part of Africa, where there was no electricity, no water. At home, he was overwhelmed with gratitude every time he turned on a faucet or clicked on a light. Even after he re-assimilated into home life, he left stickers on the tap and switch to remind himself to be grateful for the resources.

LOOK: We must use all our senses to soak in the wonderful richness that life has given to us. “That is what life is about, to enjoy what is given to us,” he says. “When we open our hearts to opportunities, opportunities invite us to do something.”

GO: We should do whatever life offers to us in that present moment. Sometimes that might be difficult, but we should go with it and do our best to enjoy every moment.

Photo: James Duncan Davidson

It sounds simple, but Steindl-Rast thinks it might just spark a revolution. “Gratefulness can change our world in immensely important ways,” he says. “If you’re grateful, you’re not fearful. If you’re not fearful, you’re not violent. The grateful act out of a sense of enough, not scarcity, so they are willing to share.” Being grateful does no less than change the power balance of life. “It’s a nonviolent revolution that even revolutionizes the concept of revolution,” he says happily, to laughs from the crowd. “Grateful people are joyful people; the more joyful people are, the more we’ll have a joyful world.”

Photo: James Duncan Davidson

As this amazing week of TEDGlobal 2013 winds to a close with Session 8: Altogether Now, the audience is still reeling from a shocking talk on the mighty roots of corruption by Charmian Gooch, founder of Global Witness. What better to help soothe the soul than the rich and sultry voice of Irish-born pop singer-songwriter RuthAnne Cunningham?

“TED for me, this week, has been about global communities, crossing borders and boundaries and coming together,” she says before she launches into her performance. Her first song is “Never Broke a Heart,” which touches on matters of the heart and RuthAnne’s most intimate experiences. On her YouTube channel RuthAnne keeps a song diary — another example of how personal her music is.

Photo: James Duncan Davidson

She plays two more new and unreleased songs: “All in Good Time” and “You Gotta Hold On,” even joining the band and playing the xylophone intro in the latter.  She tells the audience, “When I was putting together my setlist for TED, I found another common thread: time. It’s about being ready to love or not being ready, about being hopeful for life, how everything’s going to be great — all in good time.” Be prepared to see these songs on her debut launch sometime later this year!

Here’s one of the songs that she didn’t perform, but is a good taste for what’s to come in the future: